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Pakistan is predicted to see above average temperatures and below average rainfall during the monsoon season.

Feeling rain at low intensity and above temperature

Pakistan is expected to get “below normal” rainfall during the forthcoming monsoon season, which runs from June to September 2023, according to the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF).

The SASCOF stated in a statement that minimum and maximum temperatures are anticipated to continue “above normal” throughout South Asia, including Pakistan, with the exception of certain areas in the foothills of the Himalayas.

“The Pacific and Indian ocean temperatures are not conducive to a robust monsoon season in South Asia, particularly in Pakistan. Between June and September 2023, Pakistan’s southern region, which includes Sindh and Balochistan, is likely to experience below-average rainfall, according to Dr. Sardar Sarfraz, the Pakistan Meteorological Department’s (PMD) chief meteorological officer (CMO) in Sindh, who is also Pakistan’s representative at the 25th session of SASCOF.

At the 25th session of SASCOF-25, held between April 27 and 29, meteorologists and hydrological specialists from South Asian nations, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives, and Myanmar, as well as the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), participated. A consensus statement was released regarding the monsoon season in the region from June to September 2023.

In addition to the weather in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, Dr. Sarfraz stated that this year’s relatively high temperatures in Pakistan in the months of March and April were also unfavorable for the normal or above-average monsoon rains.

He continued by saying that although Gilgit Baltistan and Punjab were likely to get average rainfall during the monsoon season, certain places in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) were anticipated to see slightly above-average rainfall.

We are not anticipating such strong rains in Sindh and Balochistan, thus there are very little possibilities of any replay of monsoonal floods in this region, Dr. Sarfraz noted. Last year, it was expected that southern Pakistan would get 60% above average rainfall.

He insisted that Pakistan was now experiencing a westerly wave, which kept temperatures low in most areas of the nation. He also warned that a further westerly wave in the final week of May might bring additional rain and further cool the nation’s climate in many regions.

The weatherman predicted that most areas of Pakistan will see above-average temperatures during the monsoon season between June and September 2023.

“Minimum temperatures will remain above normal in the plains and even hilly areas of the country with a few exceptions,” he continued. “There would be less cloud coverage in the country during the monsoon season.”

Citing the announcement, Dr. Sarfraz added that the prediction for minimum temperatures for the season of June to September 2023 indicates that above-normal minimum temperatures are anticipated to occur throughout the season over the majority of South Asia, with the exception of some of the foothills of the Himalayas.

The seasonal maximum temperatures are projected to be above average in much of the region, with the exception of central and portions of the southern region of South Asia, according to the consensus prediction on maximum temperatures for the June to September 2023 season, he added.

The official said that for improved decision-making, it is advisable to observe the long-range predictions in addition to updated seasonal projections because the rainfall and temperature during the southwest monsoon season exhibit high intra-seasonal fluctuation.

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